Buccaneers at Saints Betting Pick: Week 4

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to take on the New Orleans Saints, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Kickoff for this week 4 game is set for 1:00 PM ET and will be televised on FOX.

In a matchup between two NFC South rivals, the Saints are 3.5 point favorites at home. Which side are we taking? Read on to get our pick and analysis.

Betting Odds for Saints vs. Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 | Saints -3.5
Total: 40.5
MoneyLine: Buccaneers +142 | Saints -171

Why You Should Bet on the Saints

Despite leading by 17 heading into the 4th quarter, the Saints went on to lose to the Packers. The Packers finished the game going 8/18 on third-down and put up 340 yards of total offense. On the other end, the Saints had a third down conversion rate of 28.6% and finished with 252 total yards. New Orleans also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 1.5 point favorites. Derek Carr threw for 103 yards while completing 72% of his passes and throwing for 103. Carr threw for one touchdown.

Against the spread, the Saints have a record of 0-2-1. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently +1. Up to this point in the season, games featuring New Orleans have ranked 25th in total points. They have maintained an over/under record of 0-3, and the average over/under line for their games is 40.8 points.

The New Orleans offense is currently ranked 20th in the league, averaging 17.7 points per contest. When it comes to yards allowed, the Saints rank 9th in the league, conceding an average of 288.0 yards per contest. New Orleans’ defense has allowed 16.7 points per game, which has them 6th in the NFL.

Through their last three games, the Saints have a record of 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 0-3.

Why You Should Bet on the Buccaneers

The Buccaneers were unable to overcome being held scoreless in the first quarter against the Eagles and lost by a score of 25-11. Defensively, they allowed they gave up 472 yards and allowed the Eagles to convert 50% of their 3rd downs. On offense, the Buccaneers finished with 174 yards went 5/10 on third down. Tampa Bay’s 14 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 5.5 point underdogs. Baker Mayfield threw for 146 yards while completing 60% of his passes and throwing for 146. Mayfield threw for one touchdown.

In terms of the spread, the Buccaneers hold a record of 2-1. This has come on an average scoring margin of -0.3. The average over/under line for the Buccaneers this season is currently 43.2 points. So far, their games have averaged 39 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

At 19.3 points per contest, the Tampa Bay offense is 15th in the league. Defensively, Tampa Bay is 9th in points allowed. So far, opponents are averaging 19.7 points per game against them on 359.0 yards allowed per contest.

Over their last three games, the Buccaneers have gone 2-1 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.

Final Prediction & Where To Bet

The point spread has remained quite stable, with the current lines staying consistent since opening. New Orleans is presently favored by 3.5 (-105), and Tampa Bay stands at +3.5 (-117).

For a point-spread pick, I like New Orleans with a -3.5 spread for this one. Following a strong defensive performance, I expect them to deliver another good outing. I believe New Orleans will not only secure the win but also cover the spread against Tampa Bay.

BetByState Expert Pick: Saints -3.5

Where to Bet This Game

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