Dolphins at Bills Betting Pick: Week 4

In a classic AFC East matchup, the Dolphins head to Buffalo to play the Bills. We like the Bills to cover the point spread.

At 1:00 ET , the Dolphins and Bills square off at Highmark Stadium in a week 4 NFL matchup. TV coverage belongs to CBS with the game being played on Sunday, October 1st.

The Bills are set as 3 point favorites at home in this AFC East showdown. Can they pull off a home win and cover the spread?

Betting Odds for Bills vs. Dolphins

  • Spread: Dolphins +3 | Bills -3
  • Total: 53.5
  • MoneyLine: Dolphins +124 | Bills -148

Why You Should Bet on the Bills

The Bills’ 34-point win over the Commanders was one of their largest margins of victory in recent history. Offensively, the Bills averaged 5 yards per play for a total of 386 yards. On the other end, the Commanders went 1/9 on 3rd down and finished with 230 yards. Going into the game, Buffalo was favored by 5 and went on to cover the spread. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for one touchdown and ran for 1 score. Allen completed 62% of his passes for 218 yards.

The Bills’ scoring margin thus far is currently at +18.7. This has contributed to an ATS record of 2-1. To date this season, games involving Buffalo rank 15th in total points. Their over/under record stands at 1-2, and the average over/under line for their games is 45.2 points.

The Bills come in with an average of 30.3 points per game which is 2nd in the NFL. Defensively, Buffalo is 2nd in points allowed. So far, opponents are averaging 11.7 points per game against them on 253.0 yards allowed per contest.

Through their last three games, the Bills have a record of 2-1. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 2-1.

Why You Should Bet on the Dolphins

Offensively, the Dolphins started strong by scoring 14 points in the first quarter. They concluded the game with a total of 726 yards, while the Broncos finished with 363 yards. Going into the game, Miami was favored by 6 and went on to cover the spread. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a big game, throwing for 309 yards on a passer rating of 155. Tagovailoa completed 88% of 26 attempts in the game.

The Dolphins’ scoring margin thus far is currently at +19.7. This has contributed to an ATS record of 3-0. This season, the Dolphins have an over/under record of 2-1. Their average over/under betting line so far is 48 points with their games averaging a combined 67 points per contest.

In terms of offense, the Dolphins are at 43.3 points per game, ranking them 1st in the NFL. Miami is 15th in points allowed defensively. So far, their opponents are putting up an average of 23.7 points per game, accumulating 361.3 yards per contest.

Over their last three games, the Dolphins have gone 3-0 straight up. In terms of betting, the team went 3-0 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.

Final Prediction & Where To Bet

From the time the lines were first established, Buffalo has shifted from -4 point favorites to their present line of -3 (-108). Meanwhile, Miami is currently +3 (-113) point underdogs on the road.

A matchup I’m keeping a close eye on is Buffalo’s passing game versus the Miami secondary. Considering Miami’s difficulties against Washington, I’m leaning towards Buffalo to cover with a 3-point advantage.

  • BetByState Expert Pick: Bills -3

Where to Bet This Game

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