If you’re going to get serious about betting on sports, it takes a well-thought-out and executed strategy. This is especially true with states legalizing sportsbooks the practice at a steady rate. It doesn’t need to be complicated. It definitely shouldn’t take the fun out of something that should be adding enjoyment to watching sporting events at its core. With that in mind, here’s a guide to managing your sports betting strategy successfully.
Even if the strategy is to have fun, bet on team nicknames, and stay within a $20-a-week budget, then at least it’s something. The key is once a betting strategy is established, it needs to be managed and adhered to. Otherwise, it isn’t a strategy.
There are a number of steps that are important in this process because as difficult as it may be to accept, the vast majority of gamblers lose. The majority of wagers are lost. Therefore, the discipline required to find a way to come out ahead over time is something that is necessary to beat the odds.
Examples of Strategies
Bet What You Know
One of the best strategies is to focus on the sport or sports that you know best. With knowledge perhaps being the best asset when determining what wagers to place. While you’ll be betting on the outcome of a game, match, or tournament, you will, in essence, also be betting on yourself.
Suppose you have significant knowledge of a particular sport. In that case, you should also know how to increase that knowledge by understanding where to gather more information to expand or at least substantiate what you already know. Research and data are critical to a wagering strategy because the people who set lines, at least initially, are paid to do it well and make sure that they are good enough to incent an even amount of wagers on both sides of the bet.
That’s where the focus comes in. Accumulate vast information on a narrow field, like one NFL division, a single college football conference, or one NASCAR team. Betting what you know the best allows you to spot lines or odds that are inconsistent with your data or experience, creating an opening for winning wagers.
Bet What Someone Else Knows
There is an increasing number of so-called experts that offer either free picks or make them available for a subscription fee. Many of them offer legitimate advice that is based on research, experience, and sometimes even inside information.
Others are just content providers, passing on nothing but poorly researched opinions meant to fill the web pages with essentially worthless “predictions” that are guesses. The only way to differentiate them from one another is to track a few before placing an actual wager to evaluate if they know what they’re talking about.
If you find one or more of them that are right more often than they’re wrong, it might be worth using their picks instead of spending a lot of time and effort gathering information that they use in recommending wagers.
Even if you have to pay for the advice, it can be worth it in the long run. Most paid subscription services are quite reasonable compared to what you can gain in wagering winnings. In fact, paid sites are traditionally much more effective because they can afford to pay people to spend the time it takes to gather relevant wagering data.
Frequent, Low Value, Low-Risk Wagers
If you’re just interested in the wagering activity that creates interest in many games or events, making several low-value points spread wagers, maybe in the $5 – 10 range, where the chances of winning some and losing some are likely can be a sound strategy. Over time, with odds usually set at -110 regardless of the side of the bet you take, you need to win 10% more than you lose. This is a grinder strategy that pays off slowly but also doesn’t bust the budget.
Infrequent, High Value, High-Risk Wagers
The opposite strategy is to find very favorable odds. For instance, a college football upset that you feel strongly about, where the underdog is getting +300. Or a golf tournament where your research indicates one of a group of players with odds exceeding +3000 has a great shot at victory. A $50 wager on the football team will net $150. A $10 bet on one of the golfers would bring in $300.
It’s a high risk, and you won’t hit all that often. However, it can make up for a lot of losing wagers if you do. This strategy takes real discipline and research because there is a reason those teams or players have long odds.
Managing Your Strategy
Establish a Budget
Whatever strategy you employ, the most important thing is to make a wagering budget part of it. Whether it’s daily, weekly, or monthly, it’s critical to establish and stick to wagering limits.
A budget helps you keep from losing too much during a tough stretch of luck, and it will happen. It also helps keep you from giving back those hard-earned winnings by assuming they’ll keep going when it’s inevitable that the positive streak will eventually end.
Even if you just consider it entertainment and the strategy is to make high-risk wagers, hoping for a lottery-sized payout, a budget is still important. Very few people have unlimited funds, and if you do, this article probably doesn’t apply to you anyway.
Stick to the Strategy
This sounds obvious, but if your strategy is to only make wagers on Big 12 football games because you went to Oklahoma State and follow the league religiously, then only make wagers on Big 12 football games. If a friend or some random guy claims to have great insight on Utah – Oregon State, ignore it.
Neither of those schools is in the Big 12, putting the contest well outside the established strategy. There’s a very good chance that you have very little knowledge or interest in a game being contested in the Northwest.
Tailor the Research to the Strategy
Suppose your wagering strategy involves teams from the NFC North. Additionally, they play the NFC East and AFC South teams during the season. In that case, it makes no sense to be deeply concerned about a game between Miami and New England unless you’re just interested in the outcome. You’re better off focusing on the Dallas game with the Washington Football Team or Indianapolis against the Texans to scout the wagering possibilities for future games.
Discipline in managing your wagering strategy can pay off in a big way. No one has unlimited time, so the resource should be used in the most efficient manner possible.
Shop Lines
In most of the states that offer online legal sports betting, there are numerous options for placing wagers. Many sites compare the odds and lines from various sportsbooks. This allows bettors to decide which operator to use for particular wagers.
This type of comparison plays directly into a bettor’s hands using a well-thought-out and thoroughly researched strategy. You might be looking for the best odds possible for a particular wager. You might be able to go with either side of the bet depending on the point spread based on your data.
Whatever the specific reason, shopping lines are a critical piece of managing a sports betting strategy. It should be an essential component of any strategy, regardless of the emotional attachment you might have with a favorite provider.
If you want to bet on the Bears to beat the Vikings straight up, why would you take them at +120 when you can find the same wager with Chicago at +135? It makes no sense, which is why it’s so essential to keep line shopping at the forefront of any strategy.
Strategy Management Summary
The critical components of any sports betting strategy are first to establish one. It might be very basic or it involves more complicated aspects. Next, it’s essential to establish a budget for your wagering activity to keep from spending more than you can afford. Also, it helps ensure that you hold on to your winnings.
If you have a strategy, stick to it when placing wagers because otherwise, it will be useless. In addition, all research and data-gathering activities should be focused on and support the wagering activity.
Finally, where at all possible, you need to shop lines so you can maximize the winnings associated with successful wagers. With most states offering multiple online sportsbook options, there is no reason to leave money on the table. After all, you spent time and effort developing and adhering to a strategy, establishing a budget, and researching.